Executive Summary
Gold is bullish on the weekly, and the bias for the week of Oct 12 is long into the 4,275–4,283 weekly/4H gap imbalance, then reassess. The weekly candle that closed Oct 9 swept last week's low (~4,101), wicked to 4,066.5 and closed near its high at 4,194.6 — a sell-side sweep with a bullish rejection. The working plan is a 15m long from ~4,159 with a stop near 4,142 and a first target at 4,231 (4.08R). Two scenarios remain open at the gap: rejection there sends price toward the 3,935 weekly swing-low liquidity; acceptance above ~4,290 keeps the move going toward the internal highs and ~4,700.
| Timeframe | Bias | Key Level |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Bullish | CHoCH point ~3,886 (body close below flips bias) |
| 4H | Bearish, expecting a bullish CHoCH | Lower high ~4,229 |
| 15m | Bullish after MSS | OB 4,142–4,159, breaker ~4,128–4,147 |
All prices approximate, read off OANDA XAUUSD screenshots taken Oct 10, 2026. This is a personal trading plan, not financial advice.
1. Weekly Structure
The weekly trend is bullish, with the CHoCH point at ~3,886. That is the low of late Oct 2025 which launched the leg that broke the 4,380 high. Structure in order:
- BOS at ~3,440 off the Apr 2025 high, from the ~3,120 swing low (May 2025)
- BOS at ~4,380 off the Oct 2025 high, from the ~3,890 swing low (late Oct 2025)
- IDM at ~4,270 — first pullback after that BOS (Dec 2025)
- Swing high ~5,600 printed in late Jan 2026
- IDM swept in Mar 2026 (wick to ~4,100), confirms ~5,600 as the swing high and fixes the CHoCH point at ~3,886
The pullback since March is making internal lower highs (~4,880 Apr, ~4,700 Sep). Lower timeframes can stay bearish inside a bullish weekly until one of those is reclaimed.
Image 1 — XAUUSD 1W: BOS, IDM and the 1W CHoCH point
2. Weekly Liquidity and POI
Last week's low (~4,101) was swept this week. The weekly candle (O 4,141.6 / H 4,207.5 / L 4,066.5 / C 4,194.6) closed near its high — a bullish rejection.
| Level | What it is | Role this week |
|---|---|---|
| ~4,275–4,283 | 1W gap imbalance | Nearest weekly POI, decision point |
| ~4,207 | This week's high | First buy-side liquidity |
| ~4,101 | Last week's low | Sell-side, already swept |
| ~4,066 | This week's low | Invalidation for the bullish leg |
| ~3,935 | Jun–Jul 2026 equal lows | 1W sell-side liquidity, deeper draw |
| ~3,886 | 1W CHoCH point | Weekly bias flips on body close below |
Image 2 — XAUUSD 1W: nearest POI (gap imbalance), last week's swept low and 1W swing-low liquidity
3. 4H Confluence
The weekly gap imbalance lines up with a 4H gap imbalance, and the 4H is in a downtrend with its lower high at ~4,229. To reach the POI, price must break 4,229, which is a bullish 4H CHoCH. That break is the confirmation the plan waits for.
Image 3 — XAUUSD 4H: the weekly POI is also a 4H gap imbalance
Image 4 — XAUUSD 4H: weak OB + FVG (~4,232–4,280) below the gap, 4H lower high ~4,229
| Level | What it is | Role |
|---|---|---|
| ~4,275–4,283 | 1W + 4H gap imbalance | Final target, decision point |
| ~4,256 | 50% of the 4H OB | Possible early reaction |
| ~4,232–4,280 | 4H weak OB + FVG | Zone expected to be traded through |
| ~4,229 | 4H lower high | Buy-side; break = 4H CHoCH |
| ~4,207 | This week's high | First buy-side to clear |
| ~4,066 | Week's low | Bullish idea fails below |
4. 15m Execution
The 15m has made a bullish MSS off the 4,066 low, leaving a 15m OB (~4,142–4,159), a bullish breaker block (~4,128–4,147) and a deeper 15m bullish OB (~4,103–4,115). Entry is a pullback into the upper OB, not a chase.
Image 5 — XAUUSD 15m: MSS off the 4,066 low, with the 15m OB, bullish breaker and deeper bullish OB
Image 6 — XAUUSD 15m: long position from the 15m OB, stop below it, target at the 4H OB (4.08R)
5. Trade Plan
One small-lot long from the 15m OB, taking most profit at 4,231 and leaving a runner for the gap.
| Item | Option A: Tight Stop | Option B: Wide Stop |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | ~4,159 (top of 15m OB) | ~4,159 (top of 15m OB) |
| Stop | ~4,142 (below 15m OB) | ~4,127 (below breaker block) |
| Risk | ~18 points | ~32 points |
| Target 1 | ~4,231 (bottom of 4H OB) | ~4,231 (bottom of 4H OB) |
| R:R to T1 | ~4.1:1 | ~2.2:1 |
Management: Take partials at 4,207 if price stalls there. Close most at ~4,231. Hold a small runner for ~4,256 (OB midpoint) or ~4,275–4,283 (the gap). Move the runner's stop to break-even once 4,231 is hit.
6. Scenarios and Invalidation
| Scenario | Trigger | What follows |
|---|---|---|
| A. Rejection at the gap (base case) | Price taps 4,232–4,283, then a 15m or 4H bearish CHoCH inside the zone | Delivery toward 4,105, then the 3,935 weekly lows; weekly stays bullish above ~3,886 |
| B. Acceptance above the gap | Weekly close above ~4,290 that holds | Gap turns to support; targets 4,370–4,380 internal highs, then ~4,700 |
| C. No fuel | 15m close below ~4,128, then a break of 4,066 before the gap is reached | Long idea fails; price heads for 4,105 and the 3,935 lows |
Hard invalidations:
- 15m long: a 15m close below the breaker block (~4,128)
- Bullish leg into the gap: a break below this week's low (~4,066)
- Weekly bullish bias: a weekly body close below the CHoCH point (~3,886). A wick through it is a liquidity grab, not a break.
7. Pre-Trade Checklist
- Re-mark all levels on the live chart after the Sunday open
- Confirm no open gap below the planned stop
- Choose Option A or B for the stop and size the lot accordingly
- Wait for price to pull back into the 15m OB (~4,142–4,159); no chasing
- Look for a 1m–5m reaction or BOS inside the OB before entering
- Set partials at 4,207 and 4,231, runner to 4,256 / 4,275–4,283
- Move the runner to break-even after 4,231
- At the gap: stop buying and watch for a bearish CHoCH (scenario A) or a close above ~4,290 (scenario B)
- Log the trade and outcome in TradeJournal