Track high-impact news events for XAUUSD, forex and futures. NFP, FOMC, CPI and interest rate decisions — updated live via TradingView.
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Plain-English breakdown of every major economic event. Higher than forecast vs lower than forecast, and what it means for gold, USD, and indices.
Counts the number of new paid jobs added to the US economy in a month, excluding farm workers and a handful of other categories. It is the single most-watched US jobs report.
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, US500
Tracks how much a basket of everyday items (food, rent, petrol, clothes) costs compared to the previous month or year. It is the Fed's primary inflation gauge.
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, US10Y yield, US500, NAS100
Eight times a year the Federal Reserve votes on whether to raise, lower, or hold the US interest rate. The press conference 30 minutes later often causes a second, larger price move than the decision itself.
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, all USD pairs, US500, NAS100, bonds
The total value of everything the US produced and sold in a quarter. Released three times per quarter: Advance (first estimate), Preliminary (revised), and Final (confirmed reading).
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, US500, US bonds, all USD pairs
Counts how many unfilled job vacancies exist across the US at the end of each month. A high number means employers are desperate to hire, pointing to a tight labor market and potential wage inflation.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD, EUR/USD, rate expectations
A private-sector payroll count released two days before NFP. Created by payroll processor ADP, it gives traders an early read on Friday's jobs number, though it does not always predict NFP accurately.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD, EUR/USD (preview effect only)
Released every Thursday, this counts the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time that week. It is the most frequent US labor market snapshot and acts as a real-time health check.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD (moderate weekly impact)
The percentage of people in the workforce who are actively looking for work but cannot find it. Released alongside NFP on the first Friday of the month. A rising rate is a red flag for the economy.
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, US500, all USD pairs
A monthly survey of purchasing managers at US factories. A score above 50 means the manufacturing sector is growing; below 50 means it is shrinking. It is one of the first data releases each month.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD, US500, industrial commodity pairs
Same survey structure as Manufacturing PMI but covers the services sector (banks, restaurants, healthcare, tech), which makes up roughly 70% of the US economy. Often has a bigger market impact than manufacturing PMI.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD, US500, NAS100
Measures total spending at US retail stores in a month, from car dealerships to clothing shops. It is the best real-time gauge of consumer confidence. Consumer spending drives about two-thirds of US GDP.
Affects: DXY, XAUUSD, US500, consumer discretionary pairs
Tracks price changes at the wholesale / factory level, before goods reach consumers. Think of PPI as the early-warning system for CPI. If factories are paying more, stores will eventually charge more.
Affects: XAUUSD, DXY, US bonds, inflation-sensitive pairs
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee votes on the UK interest rate. Markets watch the vote split (e.g., 7-2 to hold) and the forward guidance statement as closely as the actual decision.
Affects: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY (indirect gold effect)
The European Central Bank sets the rate for all 20 eurozone countries. Because EUR/USD is the most traded pair globally, any ECB decision that moves EUR also moves USD in the opposite direction, and gold along with it.
Affects: EUR/USD, XAUUSD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY
Signals reflect typical market reactions under normal conditions. Always confirm with live price action before entering a trade.
What each data release result typically signals for currency pairs and gold. Signals assume all other conditions are equal.
| Event | Currency | Actual > Forecast ↑ | Actual < Forecast ↓ | Gold (XAUUSD) Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) Counts new US jobs added outside farming each month. Higher readings signal a strong labor market and keep Fed rate-cut hopes low. A miss raises recession fears. |
USD | Bullish USD — strong jobs growth supports rate hike bets | Bearish USD — weak jobs = dovish Fed pressure | Beat → Bearish Gold (USD rises, gold falls). Miss → Bullish Gold |
| CPI (Consumer Price Index) Tracks how much everyday prices (groceries, rent, gas) have risen. Higher CPI means inflation is running hot and the Fed may delay rate cuts. Lower CPI suggests price pressures are easing. |
USD | Bullish USD — hotter inflation, more rate hikes expected | Bearish USD — cooling inflation, Fed may pause | Hot CPI → Bullish Gold (inflation hedge). Cool CPI → Bearish Gold |
| FOMC Rate Decision The US Federal Reserve announces whether it is raising, cutting, or holding interest rates. Higher rates make the USD more attractive to hold; lower rates reduce returns and typically boost gold. |
USD | Bullish USD — rate hike or hawkish language | Bearish USD — rate cut or dovish pivot | Hike → Bearish Gold (real yields rise). Cut → Strong Bullish Gold |
| GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Measures the total value of goods and services the US economy produced in a quarter. A strong GDP print means the economy is expanding; a weak or negative reading signals potential recession. |
USD | Bullish USD — strong economy = higher rates | Bearish USD — recession fears rise | Strong GDP → Bearish Gold. Weak GDP → Bullish Gold (safe haven) |
| BoE Rate Decision The Bank of England votes on UK interest rates. A hike or hawkish split signals tighter monetary policy; a cut or dovish majority suggests the BoE is worried about UK economic weakness. |
GBP | Bullish GBP — hike or hawkish vote split | Bearish GBP — cut or dovish majority | Indirect effect via USD cross flows. Monitor GBP/USD for confirmation. |
| ECB Rate Decision The European Central Bank sets rates for the eurozone. A hawkish decision strengthens the EUR and weakens USD, which indirectly supports gold. A dovish decision does the opposite. |
EUR | Bullish EUR — hike or hawkish guidance | Bearish EUR — cut or dovish tone | Hawkish ECB → EUR rises → USD weakens → Mild Bullish Gold |
| PPI (Producer Price Index) Tracks price changes at the factory level before goods reach consumers. Think of it as the early warning signal for future CPI. Hot PPI today often means hot CPI next month. |
USD | Bullish USD — leading indicator of future CPI heat | Bearish USD — producer deflation signals future CPI drop | Hot PPI leads to hot CPI expectations → Bullish Gold on inflation fears |
| Retail Sales Measures total spending at retail stores across the US. Strong sales mean consumers are confident and spending freely. Weak sales suggest belt-tightening and may signal economic slowdown. |
USD | Bullish USD — strong consumer spending = healthy economy | Bearish USD — weak consumer, slowdown fears | Strong sales → risk-on, USD up → Bearish Gold. Weak → Bullish Gold |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI A monthly survey of US manufacturers. Readings above 50 mean factories are expanding; below 50 means contraction. It is one of the first major data releases each month, so markets often react sharply. |
USD | Bullish USD if above 50 (expansion) | Bearish USD if below 50 (contraction) | Sub-50 PMI raises recession fears → Safe-Haven Gold demand rises |
| Unemployment Rate The percentage of the workforce actively looking for a job but unable to find one. A rising rate is bad for the economy; a falling rate signals a healthy labor market. Released with NFP on the same Friday. |
USD | Bearish USD if rate rises (worse than expected) | Bullish USD if rate falls (better than expected) | Rising unemployment → Fed dovish → Bullish Gold. Falling → Bearish Gold |
Signals reflect typical historical reaction, not guaranteed outcome. Always confirm with price action before trading.
Historically causes 50-200+ pip moves on major pairs. NFP, FOMC, CPI, GDP and interest rate decisions fall here. Avoid opening new positions 15-30 min before these releases unless your strategy accounts for news volatility.
Can move prices but the effect is usually limited or context-dependent. ISM PMI, retail sales and housing data often land here. Worth monitoring but typically safe to hold through for prop firm traders.
Rarely causes meaningful price action. Most traders ignore these and trade normally through them. The data still gets logged in the historical record but almost never triggers a liquidity sweep or displacement.
The move size depends on how much the actual number beats or misses the forecast. A result in line with expectations often reverses quickly after the initial spike. The direction of the surprise matters more than the absolute reading.
These are the releases that move XAUUSD and major forex pairs most reliably. Plan your prop firm trading weeks around them.
| Event | Currency | Impact | What to Expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) First Friday of the month, 8:30 AM ET |
USD | High | Gold typically moves 150-300 pips on surprise readings. A strong jobs number strengthens USD and pressures gold. A miss weakens USD and can spike gold above key resistance levels. |
| FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference 8 meetings per year, 2:00 PM ET |
USD | High | Rate hikes or hawkish language strengthen USD and weaken gold. Rate cuts or dovish pivots are the single largest catalyst for gold rallies. The press conference often creates a second volatility spike 30 min after the decision. |
| US CPI (Consumer Price Index) Monthly, 8:30 AM ET |
USD | High | Hotter-than-expected CPI pushes gold up on real interest rate fears and USD selling. Cooler CPI prints can briefly strengthen USD and dip gold before buying resumes. |
| US GDP (Advance, Preliminary, Final) Quarterly, 8:30 AM ET |
USD | High | Strong GDP growth strengthens USD and can cap gold gains. GDP misses increase recession fears and typically benefit gold as a safe-haven asset. |
| Bank of England Rate Decision 8 meetings per year, 12:00 PM GMT |
GBP | High | Primarily moves GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. Cross-pair flows can affect gold indirectly through USD correlation. Watch the vote split and forward guidance for the real move direction. |
| ECB Rate Decision 8 meetings per year, 2:15 PM CET |
EUR | High | Moves EUR/USD strongly. Dovish ECB weakens EUR and can strengthen USD, which may pressure gold. Hawkish surprises from the ECB can cause USD weakness that lifts gold. |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI First business day of month, 10:00 AM ET |
USD | Medium | A reading below 50 signals contraction and can weaken USD, supporting gold. Readings consistently above 50 signal expansion and can add to rate-hike expectations. |
| US Retail Sales Monthly, 8:30 AM ET |
USD | Medium | Strong retail sales signal consumer strength and can lift USD. Weak data increases recession risk, which tends to benefit gold. Often causes a 50-100 pip move on GBP/USD and EUR/USD. |
Most prop firm traders who fail do so on high-impact news days. These four steps help you use the calendar to protect your challenge.
Before the trading week opens, scan the calendar for all red (high-impact) events. Note the date, time, and currency pair affected. Mark the days where you will reduce size or stay flat.
Decide in advance: no new entries within 15 minutes of a red event, and no open positions within 5 minutes. Log this rule in your TradeJournal plan so the AI can flag violations in your trade notes.
When you open a position near a news window, add the event name to your trade notes — for example "FOMC day, waiting for post-press conference candle." This lets you analyse news-day performance separately over time.
Filter your TradeJournal history by trades logged on NFP, FOMC, and CPI dates. If your win rate on news days is below your average, the data tells you to stop trading those windows entirely.
Import your MT5 history, tag trades with the news event, and let TradeJournal's AI tell you whether you should be trading NFP days at all. Free forever — no credit card.
Learn how to use news data alongside your trading journal.